The problem of air

The reason you're seeing inflation is that a lot of money is going into consumers' pockets without a commensurate increase in production. That's what happens when you pay people to stay home, as has been happening on Earth for almost a year now. The ostensible reason for these payments is a problem that will face off-world colonists more directly: the problem of air. Air is a common resource, and as the tragedy of the commons illustrates, common resources suffer from lack of stewardship. This is especially true where societies lack social cohesion, like the United States.

Our answer to the tragedy of the commons has been private ownership or appointing someone with authority to direct private resources to address public needs (e.g., a government official). On Earth, privatizing air is unthinkable. But we've seen air stewardship quickly become a thing, and not just because people want to avoid crossing the authorities. Cultural practices have sprung up surprisingly quickly to pressure people into self-regulating what they breathe into the air.

While pathogens floating through the air now dominates the public consciousness on Earth, I can only imagine how it will dominate decisionmaking in off-world colonies. Colonies will have to be hermetically sealed to keep out the vacuum of space. Air will have to be shared, oxygen continuously pumped in as carbon dioxide is scrubbed out. Sick people will have to wait out their illness in quarantine. Since air will be classed as a good that is the product of someone's labor, whether that be public or private, the very act of breathing will be an economic transaction.

Meaning, unlike post-2020 Earth, it will not be possible to pay people to stay at home, at least not at first. You will have to produce something to earn your air. To paraphrase Paul, if anyone will not work, neither will he breathe.

Anyone leaving Earth with ideas that they'll be free to do as they please away from all those people are gravely mistaken. On the freedom scale, they'll fall somewhere between an enlisted soldier deployed overseas and a convict doing time in a max security prison. For what reason would anyone leave Earth? I think of the Pilgrims who crossed the Atlantic fleeing religious persecution. The compact they signed while anchored off Cape Cod, pledging "all due submission and obedience" to the colony, approximates what I imagine the first wave of off-world colonies will look like.

Social cohesion and the putting of others before self will be paramount. Contemporary notions of autonomy and expressive individualism will be shunned. If cohesion fails, or the colony fails, it will devolve into a cult of unreason because running away won't be an option.

The first wave's children and grandchildren will pose the greatest internal threat to the colony's longevity. They didn't sign up to live like this and may come to resent colony life. Defections should be kept to a minimum if succeeding generations are fulfilled and have a sense of progress towards a worthy goal. This is the social importance of faith, but it's also how faith becomes a tool of manipulation.

As always, let me know what you think in the comments. If lunar colonization interests you, check out my book Tendrils to the Moon. You can find an extended preview for it here.