Up until a week ago I was poo-pooing the coronavirus in private. Even as sports leagues canceled games and suspended operations, I still thought their caution was much ado about nothing.
This past week I have performed a complete 180. The more I learned about the virus and how it spread, the more I came to respect and fear it. I don't want people to make the same mistake I made ("It'll kill fewer people than the flu!), so I've been downright evangelical lately in sharing what I know.
And here's what I know. The coronavirus has a kill rate much higher than the flu. Recovery from life-threatening symptoms requires up to a month in the hospital. Ventilators are limited. Because of the 2-week incubation rate, any effort to contain the coronavirus cannot be evaluated for effectiveness until 2 weeks after implementation. The problem with that is, because of exponential growth, 2 weeks is too long to wait. If your strategy fails, you've lengthened the growth curve by 2 weeks, as well as added more time on the flip side to eradicating the virus.
We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong. https://t.co/AwE2cHIbeJ
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course?
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die.
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.
— Jeremy C. Young (@jeremycyoung) March 17, 2020On March 13, when the panic button was pushed, we had 550 new cases. On March 20, we had 5,854 new cases, nearly a tenfold increase. How many new cases will we have on March 27? Based on the growth trend, it could be as high as 60,000. I honestly don't think it will be that high, but what if it's 30,000? Can we afford to wait until we have 30,000 new cases per day for a containment strategy that we know will work?
Officials decided we couldn't wait that long. The measures implemented so far may seem draconian: shuttering and otherwise discouraging all public face to face interactions. The economy, in the short term, will tank. But in the real world, people without emergency funds or safety nets will need help to pay rent and put food on the table.
Frankly, the containment measures are worth it. An out-of-control epidemic could kill millions of Americans, sowing chaos. England was under constant bomber threat from Germany for 5 years during World War 2. We need only have that kind of vigilance for a month to snuff out the coronavirus.
By March 27, we'll know how effective current containment measures are. The turnaround will be evident in a decline in daily new cases. The total number cases will continue to rise, but at a slower pace. Most importantly, the number of silent carriers in the general population will fall dramatically. At that point, momentum takes over.
On May 8, 1945, the Allies celebrated victory over Germany in the greatest war of all time. On May 8, 2020, I believe we could be celebrating victory over this virus. Pray, and stay vigilant. Help others, and never fear to ask someone for help.
As always, let me know what you think in the comments. I'll reply to you as soon as I can. If you're looking for something to do while social distancing, I invite you to read the first 4 chapters of my new book, Seeds of Calamity, for free. If it piques your interest, get yourself a copy at Amazon. I appreciate the support!
I also recommend this free ebook anthology, released today, put together by some lusty, dragon-slaying writers of dubious repute.
UPDATE (July 2021): Suffice to say my sense of danger from COVID-19 has changed since last spring. I should have trusted my earlier skepticism. I haven't felt this burned since I was convinced bailing out the banks in 2008 would prevent financial apocalypse. I apologize for my naiveté and credulity.
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